But again, purse replica handbags that doesn’t mean Idea cheap

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The topic of battlegrounds comes up quite a high quality replica handbags bit, including specific thoughts on old favorites like Tesla and Amazon.We also get into Santos idea generation approach and how he uses market knowledge to find an edge.It takes two sides to make a market, but one side is a lot more popular than the other. In Seth Klarman’s words, you don’t go into value investing for the group hugs, but you don’t go into short selling for them either. Known for venturing into aaa replica designer handbags battlegrounds (including on a national level), he’s stuck his neck out quite a bit. That said, he also runs a Seeking Alpha marketplace service called Idea Generator that has been net long since inception Replica Bags Wholesale over 2015, and it involves an interesting spin on the crowdsourced approach to finding ideas that SA and other sites aim for. We hope it’s a decent guide for how to navigate market crossfire.Seeking replica bags Alpha: A lot of your work focuses on battleground stocks Replica Handbags TSLA, AMZN, WATT, AAPL, etc. and usually, if we can generalize, with Replica Handbags a negative perspective. Previously, I had been involved in fighting large scams wherever I could find Designer Replica Bags them, for instance a $500 million PIPS Scam out of Malaysia, or the large $5 billion Afinsa and Frum Filatlico scams in Portugal/Spain.On the battleground stocks, I guess they’re interesting to write about. There’s always something new coming out, particularly out of purse replica handbags Tesla. TSLA even Handbags Replica shares some of the dubious stocks’ qualities, as it’s forever making claims we objectively know aren’t true. I guess that attracts me to it.However, these stocks aren’t necessarily part of the Idea Generator portfolio, and the stocks that are part of the Idea Generator portfolio aren’t necessarily spoken about in my replica Purse public articles (though some good winners were, like IAC, VEDL, MBT, etc.). For instance, Amazon was never part of it, and neither was WATT. TSLA has been a few times, though, but not presently.As for the negativity Handbags Replica bent, Replica Bags Wholesale it should be noticed that very high valuations tied with dubious claims will always bring a negative bent Replica Designer Handbags to the story. But again, purse replica handbags that doesn’t mean Idea cheap replica handbags Generator itself has a negative bent. Handbags Replica Ever since its May 2015 inception, the Idea Generator portfolio has always been run at a net long exposure.Seeking Alpha: Related to that, your work seems to split relatively evenly with small or micro cap ideas and these more battleground sorts of stocks. It’s not obvious to put those two themes together. How do you see them fitting (assuming you think that’s an accurate description) and Fake Designer Bags how Replica Designer Handbags do you find an edge, especially with respect to battlegrounds?Santos: The micro, small and Designer Fake Bags medium capitalization ideas are more representative of where I might be looking for actual investment replica Purse ideas. The Idea Generator portfolio works based on a philosophy I call “predicting the predictable”. This means filtering thousands of ideas, and then choosing those which, for a reason or another, are in the midst of a period where they are predictable. This is in contrast to looking at a specific stock or sector and consistently trying to predict where it’s going. By doing this, in my view, it’s possible to beat even specialized professionals at their own game which would otherwise be nearly impossible.Let me give you an example. You have a weather forecaster. He’s forced to predict the weather day in and day out. He’s forced to predict the weather even when it’s not particularly predictable. Then there’s you, you can come in every day, with a much more Designer Replica Bags limited knowledge of weather forecasting, but you can decide Fake Handbags when you want to predict the weather. So you decide to predict cheap replica handbags it only when the market is discounting rain in the Sahara one month out because it rained in the last couple of weeks, and you can say “there will be no rain”. So Wholesale Replica Bags there you have it, the professional weather forecaster when being forced to predict weather one month out day in and day out on much more uncertain environments will fail quite often at doing so. You, picking your spots and only “predicting the predictable”, will manage to get a higher overall accuracy even without being highly specialized in the subject matter. That’s where an edge comes from.As for turning this into an actual, operable, method, Idea Generator applies many different little edges. These go from:A backtested short term cyclic system, which informs overall exposure levels. The application of many small edges, whose Designer Fake Bags origin is both academic and from my own backtesting. This includes work related to news surprises, EPS estimates, valuation, etc. Seeking Alpha: Part of what you seem to do well is Designer Replica Bags identify what you view as a market misperception, and explain why you disagree with that. Is that an inherent step of your research process to identify the market view on a stock and then decide whether it’s Replica Bags Wholesale right or wrong? Or how do you come Designer Replica Bags to that understanding of where the market is wrong?Santos: For my articles, I write on what’s interesting and novel, which I don’t see properly covered elsewhere. I am not necessarily looking for a substantial edge on the market.For Idea Generator, which has to KnockOff Handbags have specific buys and sells with associated timings and allocations, the previous logic (predicting the predictable) applies. I look for situations where there’s a good degree of certainty they are predictable. Even then, we won’t hit 100% accuracy, so individual positions are capped at 10% of the portfolio.Predicting the predictable usually implies at least two Replica Handbags things regarding picking a stock (let’s say, a long position):You need to have current valuation on your side. Said another way, the stock needs to be unreasonably Fake Designer Bags cheap if the current fundamentals stay the same. You need to have strong (predictable) reasons to believe that fundamentals replica handbags online will stay the same or improve within a reasonable time frame (say, 6 9 months out). Usually, for you to have a stock at an unreasonably cheap current valuation, that means the market expects the current Fake Designer Bags fundamentals to deteriorate significantly. If there are strong reasons for them not to, then the market will need to be wrong more often than right.Seeking Alpha: As a last battleground question, you were the bear on Amazon for a long time, but have been pretty quiet about the company in the past year. What are your current views on the company and the stock?Santos: AMZN joined 95%/99% of the replica handbags online stocks out there. It’s unpredictable right now, Replica Bags Wholesale https://www.bagstradeol.com and so I’m neutral on it. It’s Replica Handbags massively expensive, but there are no reasons to expect overall fundamental deterioration. To a large extent, this happened because AWS was producing higher margins than the already positive (11%) margins my models foresaw. Since AWS was a Replica Handbags fast growing component within the overall AMZN business mix, this quickly aaa replica designer handbags had a strong impact on what aaa replica designer handbags the model foresaw.It should be noticed that on any stock, long or short, what I try find are situations where the evolution of wholesale replica designer handbags the fundamentals has a predictable bent to it. Then, a long will require aggressively cheap valuation and fundamental improvement. A short will require expensive valuation and fundamental deterioration.Also, the models were already starting to turn even before June 2015. For this reason, AMZN was Replica Designer Handbags never a part of the Idea Generator portfolio or official ideas even though the portfolio got started in May 2015 (and ideas started from March 2015).

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